Will 7 billion people create a crisis?

Photo courtesy NASA.

Photo courtesy NASA.

World population will reach 7 billion this year, prompting new concerns about whether the world will soon face a major population crisis.”In spite of 50 years of the fastest population growth on record, the world has done remarkably well in producing enough food and reducing poverty,” said University of Michigan economist David Lam.Lam is a professor of economics and a research professor at the U-M Institute for Social Research. He delivered the presidential address, titled “How the World Survived the Population Bomb: Lessons from 50 Years of Exceptional Demographic History,” at the annual meeting of the Population Association of America earlier this year.In 1968, when Paul Ehrlich’s book, “The Population Bomb,” triggered alarm about the impact of a rapidly growing world population, growth rates were about 2 percent and world population doubled in the 39 years between 1960 and 1999.According to Lam, that is something that never happened before and will never happen again.”There is virtually no question that world population growth rates will continue to decline,” said Lam. “The rate is only as high as it is because of population momentum, with many women of childbearing ages in developing countries because of rapid population growth in earlier decades.”World Population Day, celebrated annually on July 11, was established by the United Nations Population Fund, was established to focus attention on the urgency and importance of population issues.Lam cited a variety of factors that have worked together to reduce the impact of population increases. Among the economic forces, he noted that the green revolution, started by Nobel prize-winner Norman Borlaug, that increased per capita world food production by 41 percent between 1960 and 2009.”We’ve been through periods of absolutely unprecedented growth rates, and yet food production increased even faster than population and poverty rates fell substantially,” he said.The capacity of cities to absorb the growth in world population is another major reason that the world was able to double its population in the last 40 years without triggering mass starvation or increased poverty, Lam told the group. Along with urbanization, Lam pointed to the impact of continued declines in fertility and rising investments in the education and well-being of children. Work Lam did in Brazil with ISR social demographer Leticia Marteleto shows a mean increase of 4.3 years of schooling among 16-17-year-olds from 1960 to 2000.”This increase clearly involves more than just reductions in family size,” Lam said. “For example, children with 10 siblings in 2000 have more schooling than children with one sibling in 1960.”There is no Norman Borlaug of education to explain how schooling improved so much in developing countries during a period in which the school-age population was often growing at 3 percent or 4 percent a year. This is one of the accomplishments of the last 50 years that deserves to be noted and marveled about.”In conclusion, Lam said, “The challenges we face are staggering. But they’re really nothing compared to the challenges we faced in the 1960s.”

Comments

  1. Charles Gessner - 1961

    The rapid increase in schooling in developing countries – think the BRIC group – partly explains the drain of many good jobs from the US. Graduating students from Michigan have to work even harder to distinguish themselves!

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  2. Gayl Ness - Raculty emertus

    Well done, David. Where can I find a copy of your address?
    Regards,
    Gayl

    Reply

  3. Katta Murty

    It is nice to brag about this population explosion, and how we managed to thrive in spite of the alarm triggered by Paul Ehrlich about it. I do not understand what we really gained by achieving this great population explosion?

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  4. Greg Peter - 1975 and 1978

    The Green Revolution, the geometric increase in population, and the depletion of the natural resource carrying capacity of the planet have been fueled by inexpensive, highly concentrated, easily available energy – oil. Once past the peak of oil production , these 7 billion souls will come “home to roost”. I do not see any up side to accommodating an ever increasing population of consumers. Basic biological principles stipulate a sigmoid growth curve or, given an over shoot, a crash. Whether it is disease aggression, famine, or infertility, the balance will be sought. Better we plan for negative population growth than have it “forced” upon us.

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