Great expectations

 

The confetti that fell from the ceiling at the Georgia Dome on April 8, 2013, was red and white, not maize and blue.

Michigan lost to Louisville in the national title game of last season’s NCAA tournament. And while the loss in the final was heart-wrenching for Michigan fans, the mere fact that the Wolverines were on the court that night to see the confetti fall meant everything to a program that has closed the loop on a remarkable resurgence.

Media day for men's basketball, 2013

The new season always kicks off with “Media Day.”

Over the course of John Beilein’s first five years at the helm, Michigan established itself as a contender in the Big Ten—the nation’s best basketball conference for at least the past two seasons. But with last season’s success in the NCAA tournament, Beilein took the program to heights not experienced since the Fab Five recruiting class of 1991. Often, postseason success in college basketball hinges on little things going your way (say, a half-court buzzer-beater to force overtime in the Sweet 16), but the jump in legitimacy it gives a team is substantial. At the beginning of last year, Michigan looked like a very good team—by reaching the national title game, the Wolverines proved they could walk the walk. As we enter the 2013-14 season, it’s clear this is a program to be reckoned with.

The progression of Mitch McGary and Glenn Robinson III

Michigan lost two of its best players—sophomore Trey Burke and junior Tim Hardaway Jr.—to the NBA during the offseason. But just as important are the players who decided to stay another year: sophomore forwards Mitch McGary and Glenn Robinson III. The progress each of them made during the offseason will be crucial to Michigan’s success this season, and they know it. Robinson spent part of his offseason at the Kevin Durant Skills Academy, while McGary was selected to attend Amare Stoudemire’s Big Man Academy.

Unfortunately, McGary has been day-to-day for most of the fall practices with what the coaches call a “lower-back condition.” It’s likely the coaches are being extra cautious to start the season, which is reasonable. At Michigan basketball media day, McGary didn’t seem too worried about it.

“It’s good. It feels great,” he said of his back. “Right now, I’m day-to-day. Right now, I’m just trying to do what I can to help the team.”

As for Robinson, look for him to spend more time on the perimeter handling the ball, as opposed to his role last year, which was primarily as a finisher in the post. Robinson has been focused on expanding his game and improving his guard skills—along with his leadership ability, something the young Wolverines will need from their star.

“I’ve been seeing a lot more ball screens and pick-and-roll in practice. I’ve been working with my team to improve my game, in the one-on-one skills,” Robinson said at media day. “I’ve gotten stronger, I’m shooting the ball more efficiently, I’ve worked on my ball-handling skills, and most of all, most important to me, is my leadership. That’s something I want to continue to stress to this team and I’m willing to help out and do whatever I can to make sure I’m a leader for this team.”

Caris LeVert seeing time at point guard

Given his limited role on the court for Michigan last season, along with Michigan’s already-clogged spot at lead guard, it’s understandable if this news will sound strange to Michigan fans: LeVert will almost certainly log minutes at point guard this season. He only played about 23 percent of available minutes last season, but there has been more buzz surrounding LeVert this offseason than any other Wolverine.

Why? For starters, the rail-thin Pickerington, Ohio, native has put more than 20 pounds of muscle on his 6-foot-6 frame. Along with his quick feet and long limbs, this makes LeVert a matchup nightmare for opposing teams. Michigan’s coaches are drooling over lineup possibilities with LeVert playing point: picture a lineup of LeVert (6-foot-6), Nik Stauskas (6-foot-6), Robinson III (6-foot-6), McGary (6-foot-10) and Jordan Morgan (6-foot-9).

Michigan assistant coach LaVall Jordan likes LeVert’s chances at running point.

“Caris was a small guard his freshman and sophomore year,” Jordan said. “He was a point guard, and then he grew in the middle of his high school career and then he had to play some point in late-game situations as a senior. You knew he had the ability—at least it wasn’t foreign to him. And now, based on what we do, could he handle those duties and responsibilities? Last year, every now and again, when he was on the second team, we messed around with it and saw how he did.”

The development of Michigan’s freshman class

Like any top-flight program, Michigan lost a few players to the NBA and reloaded with some top-100 recruits. The leader among Michigan’s incoming class is Zak Irvin, a versatile guard at 6-foot-6 with a penchant for sharpshooting and lockdown defense. Irvin is ranked as the 29th-best player in his class according to 247sports.com’s composite rankings, a metric that combines the rankings of the three major recruiting sites. Quickly following about 10 slots down in the rankings is Derrick Walton, a pass-first point guard from Chandler Park who finished second in Michigan’s Mr. Basketball voting last season. Finally, there’s Mark Donnal, a 6-foot-9 big man with a polished post game and knockdown 3-pointer. While a bit lower in the rankings at No. 86, Donnal is an intriguing project with a diverse skill set.

It’s tough to predict the impact each first-year player will have on Michigan’s team this season. It’s safe to assume Walton and Irvin will both see significant playing time, but where? Irvin has played on the perimeter most of his career, but Beilein’s offense is designed in such a way that the only player who truly spends most of his time in the post is the center. Therefore, we could see Irvin at any position from the two through the four. Walton will be competing with Albrecht (and, as we’ve seen, LeVert) for playing time at the one, but don’t be surprised to see him starting by Big Ten season. As for Donnal, he could be on the redshirt track this season because Michigan is pretty set in the frontcourt with McGary, Morgan, Jon Horford and Max Bielfeldt all vying for minutes.

Early outlook for 2013-14

Michigan’s outlook this season is good. Replacing a player like Burke will not be easy, and the enormity of that task should not be understated. Beilein likely will react to losing his star point guard by tweaking the focus of his offense. Last season, Michigan’s offense was run mostly through pick-and-rolls at the top of the key, with Burke directing traffic. With Michigan’s two most talented players—Robinson and McGary—working off the ball this season, it’s likely the offense will move from point guard-centric to a spread-it-out style to get playmakers like Robinson, Irvin, Stauskas, and McGary in space.

Michigan’s season last year was one for the ages, and with great success comes even greater expectations. There is too much chance involved in the college basketball postseason to predict another Final Four run, and teams don’t just recover magically from losing a consensus Player of the Year to the pros. However, Michigan has a unique combination of talent (McGary, Robinson, Irvin, Stauskas), experience (Morgan, Horford, Bielfeldt) and wild cards (LeVert, Walton, Albrecht) that could make for a formidable combination come March Madness.

What do you think of the season so far? Might the confetti be maize and blue in 2014?

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